NETFUTURE Technology and Human Responsibility -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Issue #118 A Publication of The Nature Institute March 1, 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Editor: Stephen L. Talbott (stevet@netfuture.org) On the Web: http://www.netfuture.org/ You may redistribute this newsletter for noncommercial purposes. NetFuture is a reader-supported publication. CONTENTS --------- Editor's Note Lowell Monke's New Book On Activism and an Open Mind Water, Energy, and Global Warming (Michael D'Aleo and Stephen Edelglass) Have we selected our primary villain too soon? Tech Knowledge Revue (Langdon Winner) Introducing the Automatic Professor Machine DEPARTMENTS Correspondence Ravel at Camphill (David Plank) Don't Mistake Power for God (Dale Lehman) Animal Cruelty Is Related to Violence among Humans (David Miller) Sources for Alternative Meats (Phil Walsh) Announcements and Resources Two Technology-criticism Web Sites About this newsletter ========================================================================== EDITOR'S NOTE Lowell Monke's New Book ----------------------- A book by NetFuture's occasional columnist, Lowell Monke, has just been published by the State University of New York Press. Co-authored with R.W. Burniske, a researcher in the Computer Writing and Research Laboratory at the University of Texas, the book is called Breaking Down the Digital Walls: Learning to Teach in a Post-Modem World. It includes, along with much other good stuff, Lowell's wonderful essay, "The Web and the Plow", first published in NF #19. Both authors were, during the writing of this book, deeply engaged in teaching computer technology to high school students, and the book reflects some deep thinking about their experiences. Go to www.sunypress.edu/breaking.html for sample chapters and ordering information. I hope to publish an excerpt from the book in a later issue. On Activism and an Open Mind ---------------------------- When we channel our environmental concerns into activism, we always place our understanding at risk. We need the movements and causes, of course, but it requires special vigilance to prevent our activist commitments from clouding our vision. Anyone who has once taken a public stand knows that openness to fresh insights conflicting with this stand demands a certain selflessness. Egotism has doubtless sabotaged the growth potential of many a promising movement. Yet an inflexible reading of the facts is particularly ironic when it comes to the environment, because if ecology has taught us anything at all, it's that there is always something else to consider, always additional complicating factors. I present the feature article in this issue with considerable trepidation, since it may tread heavily on the sensitivities of any who take global warming as a matter of simple fact related to unambiguous causes. The authors, Michael D'Aleo and Stephen Edelglass, were moved to look at the larger picture, and this led them to acknowledge the legitimate doubts about the role of carbon dioxide. It also led them to surprising questions about the most "innocent" of atmospheric emissions, water vapor -- and particularly the high-temperature vapor produced by combustion. If they are justified in their concerns, then such technologies of the future as hydrogen fuel cells (whose only emission is water) may not be quite the perfect answers we have imagined. D'Aleo and Edelglass, recognizing the seriousness of the unsettled questions framing the current debate, remain noncommittal about the role of carbon dioxide and the fact of warming itself, as a global phenomenon. But they certainly agree that our willingness to alter atmospheric composition on a wholesale level is a willingness to play Russian roulette with ecological balances we have scarcely begun to understand. What prompted their inquiry in the first place was D'Aleo's reflection upon the early advertisement of the automobile as the solution to a major pollution problem of the last century -- namely, the mountains of horse manure accumulating in rapidly growing cities. The automobile's own contribution to pollution didn't figure in the calculations of the time. What, D'Aleo wondered, are we leaving out of our calculations today when we quickly embrace `benign' alternatives to fossil fuels and other carbon dioxide sources? Sadly and unexpectedly, Stephen Edelglass died in November, 2000, after this paper was drafted. He and D'Aleo had been instrumental in forming SENSRI, a small, sister organization of The Nature Institute (publisher of NetFuture). Like the Institute, SENSRI is devoted to looking at problems contextually. I sincerely hope their paper will be received in the spirit it deserves: not as merely "for" or "against" any one of the hardened battle positions of the day, but rather as part of an unceasing movement toward a more encompassing understanding. SLT Goto table of contents ========================================================================== WATER, ENERGY, AND GLOBAL WARMING Michael D'Aleo and Stephen Edelglass The following is an abridgment, paraphrase, and summary of a larger paper (with explicit calculations and references) expected to be available by March 8 at http://natureinstitute.org. Author Michael D'Aleo (sensriresearch@aol.com), who is trained both as engineer and educator, has spent a number of years working in industry, receiving several patents along the way. His main interest has been to solve technical problems artistically, based on processes found in the natural world. He currently teaches physical science and mathematics at the Spring Hill Waldorf School in Saratoga Springs, New York. He co- authored the recent book, Sensible Physics Teaching, with Stephen Edelglass. Dr. Edelglass was for many years on the faculty of the Cooper Union for the Advancement of Science and Art in New York City. He then taught high school mathematics and physics at the Green Meadow Waldorf School in Spring Valley, New York, until his death last year. In addition to Sensible Physics Teaching, he co-authored The Marriage of Sense and Thought: Imaginative Participation in Science. --------------------- WATER, ENERGY, AND GLOBAL WARMING We suspect that the public's affinity for well-defined (and preferably villainous!) causes throws light on the current debates about global climate change. The fixation upon a single atmospheric constituent -- carbon dioxide, which has the advantage of now being widely viewed as a dangerous pollutant -- may have encouraged us to ignore elements of the larger picture. Our intention here is to fill out another part of that picture in a way that may prove startling: it appears that perfectly "harmless" water vapor and the actual quantity of energy produced with it may be at least as much the villains as carbon dioxide. Some Questions -------------- Given the rising levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, and given the insulating properties of this gas, it is natural to wonder whether we are looking at the cause of global warming. But has there actually been warming over the past century, and if so, how much? The problem underlying the current debate is that there are two conflicting sets of data. Ground-based thermometer readings from land- based weather stations indicate a temperature rise of about 0.6 degrees C since record-keeping began in the nineteenth century. Most of this increase occurs in the second half of the twentieth century, with the greater part, 0.2 to 0.3 degrees, coming after 1975. While these figures may seem small, they are potentially significant for climate change. A second set of measurements, available only since 1980, derives from satellites and balloons that scan the temperature of the lower atmosphere across the entire surface of the planet. These measurements show an increase ranging from under 0.1 degree C to essentially zero. So while the first method indicates a rather substantial change, the second suggests a fairly modest change. Much of the wrangling focuses on which set of data is correct. The picture becomes more interesting when a comparison is made between urban and rural ground-based weather stations. Urban stations show a significantly greater temperature increase. In fact, many rural stations show no change at all. This has led scientists to speculate about the existence of a so-called "heat island effect", which might affect our global temperature measurements. In the late 1990s, NASA completed a study of this effect in Atlanta, Georgia. The study showed temperatures inside Atlanta up to 8 degrees F higher than the surrounding countryside. The suggested explanation is that man-made materials such as concrete and asphalt store more of the sun's heat energy than forests do. A number of studies also found significant temperature differences between downtown business districts and downtown treed parks. The treed parks were up to 7 degrees F cooler than adjacent business areas. Another interesting phenomenon is the suspected link between forest fires and global warming. These fires may play a significant role in contributing to global temperature changes. At least one study suggests that up to 40% of the global greenhouse gas emissions may result from combustion due to forest fires that occur around the world. The report notes that forest destruction further reduces plant absorption of carbon dioxide. The link between global temperature increases and increased levels of carbon dioxide is actually quite complex and not without its share of uncertainty. By analyzing gas bubbles trapped in ice core samples, one group of scientists found that the levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, previously thought to be constant, actually varied significantly during the last 11,000 years prior to the industrial age. They also found that, during some earlier periods, the temperature increased before the carbon dioxide levels began to rise, sometimes with as much as a 400-to-1000-year lag. While this does not imply there is no link between global temperature and carbon dioxide levels, it does suggest that other mechanisms may help determine global temperature variation over time. Finally and perhaps most puzzling: scientists have noted that while many weather stations worldwide have been reporting increases in average temperature, there also appears to be a worldwide decrease in global rates of evaporation. This was unexpected, since warm air can receive more moisture than cool air and thus, warmer air favors evaporation. Has some mechanism put more water into the atmosphere, thereby reducing the global rates of evaporation? Water Cycles and Their Alteration --------------------------------- Water is essential for life. There are cycles of water transformation from the individual organism all the way up to the scale of the entire earth. As always, a certain balance must be achieved to prevent what supports life from becoming destructive. The farmer hopes for a balance of rain and sun for a good crop. Too little rain and the crop withers; too much brings decay and rot. Water also plays a significant role in the earth's thermal balance. The specific heat of water (the amount of heat required to raise the temperature of one gram of water by one degree centigrade) is higher than for almost any other material. Likewise for the amount of energy released when water vapor condenses to the liquid state, although this effect is even more energy-intensive. The adage, "A watched pot never boils" pays tribute to water's massive ability to absorb heat. Nearly everyone has experienced the moderating effect of the ocean and large lakes on the climate of nearby cities. These masses of water are slow to warm in hot weather, and slow to cool in cold weather. When a fossil fuel is burned, it produces not only carbon dioxide, but also water vapor (steam), in relatively equal amounts. A given unit of octane (the main component in gasoline), when completely combusted, then exhausted at 150 degrees C, and then cooled to an ambient temperature of 30 degrees, releases directly into the atmosphere ten times as much thermal energy from the water as from the carbon dioxide. In addition, the insulating effect of water vapor and carbon dioxide are essentially identical, so that water vapor adds substantially to any greenhouse effect in those areas where combustion is occurring. Cities and industrial areas, of course, are primary sources of water vapor production via combustion. But they also channel water into the atmosphere by other means. Cities present vast evaporative surfaces preventing the return of water to underground aquifers. (The evaporation of water from hot asphalt after a summer rainstorm is particularly noticeable.) Water from city surfaces is channeled into storm sewers, where it is finally put into a holding pond or river, from which further evaporation occurs. Additionally, ground water tables are falling in many cities. But if water tables are falling, where has the water gone? You might assume that levels have risen in surface bodies of water, but this has not been observed. Apparently the water has gone into the atmosphere. Cities are not the only sites of large-scale, human-caused water vapor emission. Deforestation by burning releases tremendous amounts of water into the atmosphere: the tree itself is 50% water; combustion of the remaining 50% (carbohydrates and cellulose) produces more water; and destruction of the forest canopy exposes the moist forest soil to evaporation by sun and wind. Given present rates of deforestation, the potential for regional climate modification is considerable, quite apart from the production of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. Deforestation releases more water vapor than carbon dioxide. Water Emissions and Climate Modification ---------------------------------------- If we have been releasing more water into the atmosphere, might it be falling out of the sky somewhere? There is little evidence for increased precipitation on a global scale. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association reports a small (one percent) increase in precipitation over land in the twentieth century, while the same report notes a general increase in cloud cover over both land and oceans in recent decades. For the most part, areas experiencing long wet spells seem to be counterbalanced by other areas experiencing drought. The fact that there seems to be little overall increase in precipitation despite increasing human contributions of water vapor suggests that the atmosphere's water content might be rising. However, this would not be a global effect. Water vapor, unlike carbon dioxide, does not diffuse easily through the atmosphere and is therefore concentrated near the earth's surface. Further, the atmospheric water vapor content will be higher near the sources of water vapor -- for example, near cities and areas undergoing deforestation -- rather than being evenly dispersed in the manner of carbon dioxide. Higher atmospheric water vapor would be expected near cities on a continuing basis, as a result of the combustion of fossil fuels. It would also be expected near deforested areas on a short-term basis; once deforestation is complete, the effect would cease. All this has definite implications for climate modification. In the first place, given the higher temperature of the products of combustion, the release of energy when water vapor is condensed, and the insulating effects of water vapor, we should expect an increase in the cities' average yearly temperature. As we have seen, this "heat island effect" has already been reported, although the link to water vapor and combustion processes has been widely missed. All energy production ultimately manifests as thermal energy. A very general calculation is therefore possible by taking the overall energy produced in the U.S. in 1988 and assuming it to be evenly distributed on a per capita basis. In this case the energy production in a heavily populated region such as Queens County, New York, turns out to be a rather astounding 43% of the total solar energy incident upon the same area. Of course, most of this energy production releases water vapor, and our calculation leaves aside the further, insulating and thermal properties of this vapor. (You'll have noticed, for example, that a cloudy night is generally warmer than a clear night, and that a hot desert cools off significantly at night due to a lack of water in the air and immediate surroundings.) A second expectation is that moisture-rich metropolitan air should produce rain when it moves over cooler, rural areas. This is exactly what the NASA study of Atlanta found. Taking the per capita U.S. consumption of fossil fuels and again applying it to Queens, one discovers that the water resulting from combustion would cover the entire 109 square miles of the county to a depth of nearly 4 inches -- this in a place where the average annual rainfall is 42.82 inches. Needless to say, not all the additional rainfall would fall within the county, but these figures suggest the relative significance of the added water. Applying the same calculations to a rural area such as Herkimer County, New York (with a population of 65,809 on an area of 1412 square miles), one sees only a tiny fraction of the effects seen in urban areas. For example, human energy production turns out to equal only 0.1% of solar input. Reconciling the Data -------------------- The role of water vapor and energy consumption also helps to explain both sets of temperature data mentioned earlier. Even though global levels of carbon dioxide are fairly consistent worldwide, temperature variations are not. But these temperature variations -- including the urban-rural disparity -- do correlate well with energy consumption and local water vapor production. Moreover, there appears to be a strong correlation between areas of deforestation and temperature change, as our analysis suggests should be the case. Temperature increases in the Amazon region and Siberia, where significant deforestation is under way, seem to be unusually high. This contrasts with other interior areas, such as the Midwest Plains of the U.S., where no warming is apparent. Finally, the decrease in measured evaporation rates now also finds explanation. While the decrease is puzzling when taken only in conjunction with a thesis of global warming, it makes sense once we add human-related sources of water vapor to natural evaporation. Furthermore, as expected, the atmospheric water vapor content in North America (the one place where reliable data are available) has been increasing during the two-decade period starting in 1973. On the view presented here, one would expect to see some correlation between carbon dioxide levels and temperature change, since both water vapor and carbon dioxide are major products of combustion. But water vapor's dominant role fits better with the overall pattern of global data, helping to resolve the contentious debate between those who see global warming and those who don't. Local and regional warming are occurring, even if the global picture shows no clear warming trend. One additional note: the role of increased cloudiness and its albedo (reflective) effect is not discussed here, and requires further study. We Are Environmental Causes --------------------------- In sum, atmospheric warming -- the warming for which we currently have the clearest evidence -- is a local and regional phenomenon more than a global one, and it appears to be due more to human-caused energy production and water emissions than to carbon dioxide emissions. This is not to take a position for or against global warming as such. Nor is it to downplay the potentially grave significance of any large- scale alteration of the natural environment. Nor again is it to dismiss the global significance of local and regional warming. When a NASA study of the metropolitan Atlanta area finds that the rainfall in rural areas southeast of the city was the result of Atlanta's "heat-island" effect, we can no longer deny mankind's effect on the greater environment. The possibilities of even larger regional effects continue to be studied by various researchers. Even if the globally averaged temperature fluctuations reflect improper measurements or natural periodic variations, it seems impossible to attribute local and possibly regional temperature fluctuations to anything other than man-made influences. We have yet to see a report that denies the existence of the "heat-island" effect. There is also sufficient evidence to suggest that the atmospheric levels of water vapor are rising and may be responsible for local and regional changes in temperature and in weather patterns. If there is a moral to the story, it is that prolonged scientific debate and confusion can sometimes result from a failure to step back and look at all aspects of a problem. And a second moral is that out-of-context technological fixes aimed at a single aspect of a complex whole may prove destructive. Much of the research on alternative fuels today is premised on the belief that water vapor is a benign emission. But if we have learned anything over the past decade, it is that a life-giving element can become destructive if it is removed from a balanced context. The faith being placed in hydrogen and fuel cell technologies (which emit nothing but water) may need more thorough study. The only solutions that will truly decrease the destabilization of the environment are those that work in conjunction with the entire natural process found in any given ecosystem. A greater study and understanding of the complex interactions found within natural ecosystems may indeed yield important details in this regard and point to real solutions to these problems. --------------------- If you are interested in the details of this paper, it can be found (after March 8) here. Goto table of contents ========================================================================== INTRODUCING THE AUTOMATIC PROFESSOR MACHINE Langdon Winner (winner@rpi.edu) TECH KNOWLEDGE REVUE 3.1 March 1, 2001 Readers of NetFuture my be interested to learn that there's now a streaming video version of my "Introducing the Automatic Professor Machine" satire available on my web page: http://www.rpi.edu/~winner/apm1.html The skit begins at the yearly meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Education where I am about to give the keynote address. Soon I step aside, introducing my alter ego, Mr. L.C. Winner, dynamic global entrepreneur and C.E.O. of the exciting new start-up, Educational Smart Hardware Alma Mater, Inc. From there L.C. rolls out his vision of the "forces driving education today" and his sales pitch for the APM and other innovative products from EDU-SHAM. The 20-minute video is best seen if you have a fast ethernet or cable connection. Please note that the skit is in two parts that load automatically (of course), but with a brief break between parts one and two. Also, I regret that the present production still lacks the sound track for applause and crowd noise, although L.C. obviously hears them. In the as yet unfinished final version, these sound effects will be included along with "credits" at the conclusion and a musical theme, "March of the Distant Educators". The video is a shorter version of a lecture I've given at conferences and universities during the past couple of years. It offers my response to the premises and pretensions of initiatives in digital, online education that we hear so much about these days. The origin of the piece was a straightforward lecture on globalism and education I first gave at the School of Education, Queens University, Kingston, Ontario, in the middle 1990s. After doing the same talk a few more times I decided to present the ideas in a different way, taking the language of globalism, distance education, computers in the classroom, and the like and pushing it over the top. The results now stream away for your edification and enjoyment on my web page. When I offer the longer, 40-minute version of this shtick, there are two common responses. Some people insist on telling L.C. Winner (who remains at the podium during the question and answer period) that while they appreciate the humor, they themselves have had excellent luck using digital hardware and software in their online schools, colleges and universities. L.C. responds enthusiastically, telling the teachers and administrators that he celebrates their successes; together they can work toward the eventual goal -- "eliminating the inflexible ballast that has come to be known as `education' during the past two centuries!" Inevitably, there are people in the audience who inform L.C. that his business plan is already out of date, superceded by aggressive corporations and hucksters in the software, communications, university, and info-ed business worlds who are wiring the world of distance learning in ways far more extensive, lucrative and effective than the ham-fisted schemes he's proposing. L.C. admits that there's stiff competition out there, but that EDU-SHAM still has a few tricks up its sleeve. Among these are developments that will eliminate the "two remaining bottlenecks" that stand in the way of achieving total penetration of education by global, digital technology. Alas, legal issues of "intellectual property, copyrights, and patents" prevent L.C. from saying exactly what the bottlenecks are or how they will be removed. I hope to polish the Automatic Professor Machine video soon, making it available on VHS tape and CD-ROM, perhaps by late spring. Now that I've gotten used to this medium, I'll move on to do a series of "techno- satires" that raise issues about technology and human responsibility in a variety of contexts. Your comments on the APM streaming video and its approach are most welcome. --------------------- Tech Knowledge Revue is produced at the Chatham Center for Advanced Study, 339 Bashford Road, North Chatham, NY 12132. Langdon Winner can be reached at: winner@rpi.edu and at his Web page: http://www.rpi.edu/~winner . Copyright Langdon Winner 2001. Distributed as part of NetFuture: http://www.netfuture.org/. You may redistribute this article for noncommercial purposes, with this notice attached. Goto table of contents ========================================================================== CORRESPONDENCE Ravel at Camphill ----------------- Response to: "On Forgetting to Wear Boots" (NF-117) From: David Plank (dgp@epix.net) Steve, Thanks so much for your article on Camphill at Copake. I hope to retire someday to live in such a community. I'll never forget an evening there when Richard Goode played Ravel in a way that enlivened the music and the audience like I've never experienced anywhere else ... in space or time. Regards, David Don't Mistake Power for God --------------------------- Response to: "Response to Goldhaber and Wishard" (NF-117) From: Dale Lehman (Lehman_D@fortlewis.edu) The more Kevin Kelly explains himself, the more I become bothered. He claims that his point is that we should acknowledge our "godhood" and not deny it -- and that wise use of our power is a daunting and frightening task. I agree with the latter part of the statement but I am deeply disturbed by the acknowledgment of our "godhood." Why elevate power (and potential reckless power) to the status of "godhood?" I think the characterization reveals a fundamental way of looking at human existence that differs from my own. Yes we have power. Yes we can now influence evolution and life on this planet to extents never possible before. Yes we should not deny this fact but recognize it and learn how to act under such circumstances. But power should not be mistaken for god. I have no particular religious convictions, but I think it is unfortunate that the societal value that Kevin's statement reflects is that power is good and power makes some people more worthy than others. Isn't that part of the problem? Dale Lehman Animal Cruelty Is Linked to Violence among Humans ------------------------------------------------- Response to: "How Important Is Animal Suffering?" (NF-117) From: David Miller (dmiller@post03.curry.edu) Hi, Steve -- Phil Walsh might be interested in some research conducted and promoted by the Humane Society of the United States, on the connection between cruelty to animals and violence toward other human beings. I understand that law enforcement personnel around the country are taking this connection seriously. The URL for the Humane Society's "First Strike Campaign" is: http://www.hsus.org/firststrike/index.html To quote from their Introduction: Over the last 25 years, many studies in psychology, sociology and criminology have demonstrated that violent offenders frequently have childhood and adolescent histories of serious and repeated animal cruelty. The FBI has recognized this connection since the 1970s, when its analysis of the lives of serial killers suggested that most had, as children, killed or tortured animals. Far more prevalent, animal cruelty is frequently an indicator in cases of domestic violence, child abuse, and elder abuse. In response to recent studies indicating a strong correlation between animal abuse and family violence, communities across the United States are taking animal abuse seriously and developing innovative programs designed to provide early identification and intervention for violent perpetrators. So, even if one professes that the suffering of (other!) animals is, of itself, less important than that of humans, the connection is worth taking seriously. Thanks, David Miller Boston, Mass. Sources for Organic Meats ------------------------- Response to: "How Important Is Animal Suffering?" (NF-117) From: Phil Walsh (philw@microware.com) My post regarding factory farms and suffering was so poorly written that it almost completely obscures my beliefs. Rather than trying to salvage that post, I'd just like to note that I whole-heartedly agree with the gist of what Lowell Monke and Douglas Sloan had to say about factory farms, and for anyone interested in alternative sources of meat I offer this link to the "Iowa Family Farm Meats Directory", a compendium of family farms that practice organic, chemical- free, and/or free-range animal husbandry: http://www2.state.ia.us/agriculture/meatdirectory1.htm. Phil Walsh Des Moines, Iowa Goto table of contents ========================================================================== ANNOUNCEMENTS AND RESOURCES Two Technology-criticism Web Sites ---------------------------------- NetFuture reader Hans Talmon has put together a remarkable collection of links to a stimulating array of essays, articles, and text excerpts -- all under the heading "Social Criticism Review" (www.socialcritic.org). There are numerous subheadings dealing with various aspects of technical society and alienation, environmental crisis, moral crisis, and the restoration of community. The selection of material is stunning, quickly surveyable, and -- unless time is an infinite resource for you -- a bit overwhelming in its richness. Jerry McCarthy's Luddite Reader web site (www.ludditereader.com) is less extensive, less buttoned down, and at times a little weird. Next time someone calls you a Luddite, check it out. Goto table of contents ========================================================================== ABOUT THIS NEWSLETTER Copyright 2001 by The Nature Institute. You may redistribute this newsletter for noncommercial purposes. You may also redistribute individual articles in their entirety, provided the NetFuture url and this paragraph are attached. NetFuture is supported by freely given reader contributions, and could not survive without them. For details and special offers, see http://netfuture.org/support.html . Current and past issues of NetFuture are available on the Web: http://netfuture.org/ To subscribe or unsubscribe to NetFuture: http://netfuture.org/subscribe.html. Steve Talbott :: NetFuture #118 :: March 1, 2001 Goto table of contents